According to Oregon’s 2022 Biennual Energy Report, Oregon is committed to deep decarbonization of the state’s economy by mid-century. Fossil fuels are the predominant energy source of the modern economy. For more than a century, we’ve been developing our fossil fuel-based economy, enjoying the many benefits of this affordable and abundant energy source. Whether or not human-caused atmospheric CO2 is a major cause of global warming, Oregon has enacted executive orders and laws setting targets for CO2 emissions reduction.
Our society has become accustomed to the fast, and even breathtaking, speed of information technology transformation. However, the blazing speed of information technology change does not translate to the energy industry. While information is being compressed and transferred at ever-increasing rates, a kilowatt-hour of electricity is real energy, and no technology exists to compress it or move it faster. Think of a kilowatt-hour of electricity like a gallon of gasoline.
What does this finite characteristic of electric energy mean in relation to the drive for a zero-carbon economy? Fossil fuels are an abundant, available and low-cost energy source that has taken more than 100 years for our society to develop. They are the foundation of modern civilization. As we work to transform society to a zero-carbon economy, how fast can we expect to replace our carbon economy that took so long to build?
In 2007, Google started the RE<C (renewable less than coal) project to produce 1,000 megawatts of renewable energy for less than it costs to generate the same amount of electricity from coal. They shut down the project in 2011, learning they could not force energy technology transformation at the rate the company had been transforming information technology.
Does this mean humanity should quit trying to transform the current energy infrastructure and abandon the quest to be better environmental stewards? Absolutely not. It does mean there will be adverse consequences if we try to force, through legislation or otherwise, the transformation of the fossil fuel energy infrastructure before zero-carbon energy technologies are ready.
Hypothetically putting carbon emissions aside, you can think about outlawing carbon-based energy today like outlawing rail transportation decades ago, before air transportation became safe, reliable and economical. If it had been done, transportation costs would have skyrocketed while reliability plummeted, causing economic havoc. Forced zero-carbon policy is moving our electricity infrastructure toward similar havoc today.